Outlook for Tesla's 4680 Battery Application
Tesla led the way in 2020 and, in the penultimate week of December 2022, produced 868,000 large cylindrical lithium-ion battery cells at its Fremont factory in California, capable of supporting 1,000 Model Y vehicles. Further expansion of 4680 production to 100 GWh is planned, with capacity expected to grow by 2023.
On January 25, the company announced a $3.6 billion investment to further expand the Nevada Gigafactory, adding a 100 GWh 4680 cell factory to accommodate 1.5 million light vehicles (S3XY). Simultaneously, the Semi factory expansion is also anticipated.
Current 4680 production plans include Kato Road, Texas factory, and the Nevada factory (Berlin factory's 4680 cell line is expected to be relocated to the Texas factory due to IRA impact), with initial estimated capacity reaching around 150 GWh.
Production progress: In December 2022, the company announced that the Kato Road initial production line achieved an annualized capacity of approximately 4.4 GWh. We anticipate seeing Tesla's 4680 capacity grow from 1 to 10 GWh by 2023.
EVE Energy is well-positioned in the large cylindrical battery sector. In 2021, they already produced 4680 and 4695 products, gaining recognition from downstream automakers. The planned 20 GWh capacity for large cylindrical EV batteries is expected to begin mass production in 2023.
Panasonic plans to start trial production of 4680 batteries in Japan in March 2022. The technical goals for developing 4680 battery products have been mostly achieved, but large-scale production still faces technical challenges.
LG, Samsung, CATL, BYD, CATL, and others are also conducting research and development in the large cylindrical battery sector, which will further drive the development of high-nickel materials.
In June 2022, LG Energy Solutions announced a $4.5 billion investment to expand its 4680 cylindrical battery capacity at its Cheongju Plant 2 in Chungcheongbuk-do, South Korea. The project is expected to begin mass production in the second half of 2023. Additionally, LG Energy Solutions also announced a $1.7 billion investment to establish a wholly-owned power battery factory in Arizona, USA, with plans to build an 11 GWh cylindrical battery project, expected to start production in the second half of 2024.
According to insideevs.com, in June 2022, Panasonic sent 4680 battery samples to Tesla. Panasonic's energy subsidiary CEO Kazuo Tadanob stated that Panasonic expects to achieve mass production of 4680 batteries in Japan by May 2023. In March 2022, Panasonic's energy subsidiary announced the construction of a new production facility at its Wakayama Plant in Japan for 4680 battery production, with two planned production lines totaling 10 GWh in capacity.
Summary
The core innovation of the 4680 battery lies in its large cell size, tabless electrode design, and dry battery electrode technology, enhancing battery power and safety, improving production efficiency, fast-charging performance, and reducing battery costs. There is further room for improvement in energy density and cycling performance.
The difficulty in mass-producing 4680 batteries is largely due to process bottlenecks, including the use of dry electrode coating and tabless electrode technology, which pose challenges in calendering, welding, and electrolyte filling.
Currently, only certain models in the United States use 4680 batteries, and their real-world performance has not significantly improved range but has seen varying degrees of decline.
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